PC Calendar of Events12/28/08 to 01/03/2009

The Egyptian Theatre Presents The Music Man
November 21, 2008 - January 4, 2009
Location: The Egyptian Theatre
Phone: 435-649-9371
www.egyptiantheatrecompany.org
This classic musical with its traveling con-man and the lonely piano teacher has been charming audiences for decades. Come, bring the whole family to this heartfelt and uplifting entertainment and spend the holidays with us at The Egyptian Theatre. Please call for show days and times.

Torchlight Parade
December 30, 2008
Location: Deer Valley Resort
Phone: 800-424-3337
deervalley.com

New Year's Eve Celebration at The Canyons Resort
December 31, 2008
Times: 7 to 9pm
Location: Resort Village at The Canyons
Phone: 435-649-5400
Admission: Free
thecanyons.com
Festivities kick off at 7pm with live music. Fireworks display is at 7:30pm. The band will then play until 9pm.

Three Dog Night at The Eccles Center
December 31, 2008
Location: 1750 Kearns Blvd
Phone: 435-655-3114
www.ParkCityTickets.com
The legendary pop band will bring a little "Joy to the World" on New Year's Eve.

Park City Film Series - The Duchess
January 2, 2009 - January 4, 2009
Times: Friday & Saturday at 7pm; Sunday at 6pm
Location: Jim Santy Auditorium, 1255 Park Ave
Phone: 435-615-8291
www.parkcityfilmseries.com
This period drama adapted from Amanda Foreman's best-selling novel Georgiana, Duchess of Devonshire, stars the beautiful Keira Knightley and always intense Ralph Fiennes. The story documents the romantic entanglements of an 18th century London celebrity whose unhappy marriage to the Duke of Devonshire threatens to erupt into scandal when she falls for an enterprising young politician.

PC Calendar of Events 12/23/08 to 12/27/08

Santa on the Slopes
December 23, 2008 - December 25, 2008
Location: The Canyons Resort
Phone: 435-649-5400
thecanyons.com

Santa Claus Visits Deer Valley
December 24, 2008
Location: Deer Valley Resort
Phone: 800-424-3337
deervalley.com

Traditional Holiday Celebration and Torchlight Parade
December 24, 2008
Location: Park City Mountain Resort
Phone: 800-514-3418
parkcitymountain.com

Gallery MAR Winter Grand Opening and Miniature Show
December 26, 2008
Location: 580 Main St
Phone: 435-649-3001
Admission: Free
www.gallerymar.com
Local Utah artists present new miniature works for this holiday season. All styles and media, for all tastes. Delicious eats and artful conversation. Show runs from December 19 through January 4.

Park City Film Series - Happy Go Lucky
December 26, 2008 - December 28, 2008
Times: Friday & Saturday at 7pm; Sunday at 6pm
Location: Jim Santy Auditorium, 1255 Park Ave
Phone: 435-615-8291
www.parkcityfilmseries.com
In the effervescent new comedy from writer/director Mike Leigh (Topsy Turvy, Secrets & Lies), Sally Hawkins stars as Poppy, an irrepressibly free-spirited school teacher who brings an infectious laugh and an unsinkable sense of optimism to every situation she encounters, offering us a touching, truthful and deeply life-affirming exploration of one of the most mysterious and often the most elusive of all human qualities: happiness. Poppy's ability to maintain her positive perspective is tested regularly by the characters around her. She, nevertheless, manages to set a marvelous example of how to find the bright side of life for us all.

Park City Gallery Association Presents The Gallery Stroll
December 26, 2008
Times: 6 to 9pm
Admission: Free
www.parkcitygalleryassociation.com
On the last Friday of each month, members of the Park City Gallery Association offer a unique showcase highlighting artists, special exhibits, and art events. The last Friday Gallery Stroll is a free community event that gives locals and Park City visitors alike the opportunity to enjoy light refreshments while exploring Park City's exciting art scene. Please visit any of our participating galleries to pick up a free gallery guide.

Julie Nester Gallery Artist Reception--Philip Buller and Tor Archer
December 27, 2008
Times: 5:30 to 8pm
Location: 1280 Iron Horse Drive
Phone: 435-649-7855
www.julienestergallery.com
Philip Buller is known for his figurative paintings that have references to the old-world masters. Tor Archer's work has revolved around a series of figurative sculptures based on the standing female form. Both exhibits run from December 26 through January 27.

Best Buy in Deer Valley

7620 Royal Street, Royal Plaza #302

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PC Calendar of Events 12/18/08 to 12/20/2008

Park City Free Winter Concert Series - Special Christmas Concert
December 18, 2008
Times: 8-10pm
Location: HarryO's, 427 Main St.
Phone: 801-661-1888
www.parkcityconcerts.org
With Park City All-Stars including Joy & Eric, Rich Wyman & Lisa Needham, and Mister Sister. Produced by The Park City Concerts Foundation and sponsored by The Canyons, the Thursday night series will bring a mix of the best bands in Utah and national touring acts to Park City's historic Main Street.

Park City Film Series - I Served the King of England
December 19, 2008 - December 21, 2008
Times: Friday & Saturday at 7pm; Sunday at 6pm
Location: Jim Santy Auditorium, 1255 Park Ave
Phone: 435-615-8291
www.parkcityfilmseries.com
Renowned Czech New Wave filmmaker Jiri Menzel has created a black comedy detailing the shrewd rise of an ambitious waiter. All the diminutive manservant Jan ever wanted was to be very rich and to preside over his very own hotel. With World War I I fast approaching and the Germans steadily taking occupation of Czech territory, the opportunistic waiter begins his rapid ascent up the hospitality ladder by working for a number of high-profile figures. The pursuit of riches is not all it is cracked up to be as the tale develops into universal moral and ethical dilemmas.

Natalie MacMaster--Christmas in Cape Breton
December 20, 2008
Location: The Eccles Center, 1750 Kearns Blvd
Phone: 435-655-3114
www.ParkCityTickets.com
Ushering in the holiday season, this bonnie Canadian not only fiddles up a storm, but step dances with lightning-fast footwork. Performing both rollicking and lament-peppered Celtic music – with an occasional roots-jazz-Latin twist or two – MacMaster has topped the Billboard charts, earned several Junos as well as a Grammy nomination and received Canada's highest civilian honor, the Order of Canada. As the Winnipeg Free Press put it "No one can touch her when it comes to playing the fiddle."

Santa Arrives at the Town Lift Plaza
December 20, 2008
www.parkcitymountain.com
Welcome Santa and Rudolph as they fly their sled full of goodies into Park City on the Town Lift. Enjoy an evening of holiday carols, Christmas cheer, hot cocoa and cookies.

Santa Skis Free
December 20, 2008
Location: The Canyons Resort
Phone: 435-649-5400
thecanyons.com

PC Calendar of Events 12/07/08 to 12/13/08

FIBT Bobsled & Skeleton Intercontinental Cup
December 8, 2008 - December 14, 2008
Location: Utah Olympic Park
Phone: 435-658-4200
olyparks.com

FIS Nordic Combined World Cup
December 8, 2008 - December 14, 2008
Location: Utah Olympic Park
Phone: 435-658-4200
olyparks.com

FIS Women's Continental Cup
December 8, 2008 - December 14, 2008
Location: Utah Olympic Park
Phone: 435-658-4200
olyparks.com

A Park City Holiday
December 10, 2008
Times: 5:30pm
Location: Park City Ice Arena
Admission: Free
www.parkcity.org
A night of fun, caroling, skating, sledding, pictures with Santa, face painting, 2008 Park City ornament, hot chocolate, popcorn and peanuts. Dress warmly, bring your sleds and visit with Santa. Join us for a reading of 'Twas the Night Before Christmas and a performance by the Jeremy Ranch Choir.

Park City Film Series - The Motorcycle Diaries
December 10, 2008
Times: 7pm
Location: Jim Santy Auditorium, 1255 Park Ave
Phone: 435-615-8291
Admission: Free
www.parkcityfilmseries.com
This is a beautifully wrought account of the dawning of the social conscience of one of the 20th centuries most romanticized revolutionaries. Brazilian director Walter Salles, filmed in Argentina, Chile, Bolivia, Peru, Brazil and Venezuela to recreate the 8 month trip through South America taken in 1952 which opened the eyes of a 23 year old Argentine medical student who would become the charismatic Che. The film makes rich use of its beautiful location. It is a revelation of intelligent and artful story telling without being politically didactic and reveals a humanity found in few movies. Part of the Reel Classics Film Series.

Business After Hours
December 11, 2008
Times: 5:00pm - 7:00pm
Location: Rikka
Phone: 435-649-6445
Join us for our next Business After Hours Mixer hosted by Jane Sahagian and Rikka. Enjoy complimentary hors d'oeuvres and beverages while networking with fellow Chamber members. Please RSVP to Jane by December 5, 2008 at or jsahagian@rikkafloral.com.

Park City Free Winter Concert Series - Detonators
December 11, 2008
Times: 8-10pm
Location: HarryO's, 427 Main St.
Phone: 801-661-1888
www.parkcityconcerts.org
Produced by The Park City Concerts Foundation and sponsored by The Canyons, the Thursday night series will bring a mix of the best bands in Utah and national touring acts to Park City's historic Main Street.

Park City Film Series - Frozen River
December 12, 2008 - December 14, 2008
Times: Friday & Saturday at 7pm; Sunday at 6pm
Location: Jim Santy Auditorium, 1255 Park Ave
Phone: 435-615-8291
www.parkcityfilmseries.com
Reviewed as one of the most interesting American independent films to come out of this year’s Sundance Film Festival, Frozen River is the story of Ray Eddy, a struggling upstate New York mom who is lured into the world of illegal immigrant smuggling when she meets a Mohawk girl who lives on a reservation that straddles the US-Canadian border. Broke after her husband takes off with the down payment for their new home, Ray reluctantly teams up with Lila, a smuggler, and the two begin making runs across the frozen St. Lawrence River carrying illegal Chinese and Pakistani immigrants in the trunk of Ray's car. This is an intense and unique look at the lives of two enthralling characters.

Park City Historical Society's Dungeon Party/Annual Membership Drive
December 12, 2008
Times: 5 to 7:30pm
Location: Elks Lodge, 550 Main St.
Phone: 435-649-7457
www.parkcityhistory.org
Free to members; memberships available at door.

Demo Day
December 13, 2008
Location: The Canyons Resort
Phone: 435-649-5400
thecanyons.com

The Park City Nutcracker
December 13, 2008
Times: 3pm and 7pm
Location: Eccles Center
Phone: 435-658-2345
This annual performance by Park City Dance brings the magic of The Nutcracker to life for adults and children. Come see the snow angels, Raggedy Annes and Andys, dancing elephants and more in this Park City holiday tradition. Call for tickets and information weekdays after 3pm.

The Future for Home Prices

Cover Story
The Future for Home Prices
Americans still see real estate as their best shot at wealth. It may be wishful thinking.
DECEMBER 2, 2008
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
Over the past few years, Americans have had a brutal lesson in the risks of real estate. House prices have crashed more than 35% in some parts of the country, millions of people are losing their homes to foreclosure, and banks are failing.
The takeaway? Many Americans still see real estate as their best shot at wealth. In survey after survey, people expect prices to bounce back -- in some cases, as soon as six months from now.
Those hoping for a quick rebound are likely to be disappointed. Economists and other pros generally say home prices won't bottom out before the second half of 2009, and some don't see a bottom until 2011 or 2012. Even when they stop falling, prices may scrape along the bottom of the rut for years.

Down the Road
And longer term? Over the next 10 to 20 years, housing economists expect prices will rise again -- but, on average, probably not nearly as much as they've averaged over the past decade. That isn't to say that some places won't experience booms (and busts). But, the experts say, you should generally expect house prices to rise just a bit more than inflation and roughly in line with household income.
Karl Case, an economics professor at Wellesley College whose name adorns the S&P Case-Shiller home-price indexes, has studied U.S. house prices going back to the 1890s. Over the long run, he says, home prices tend to increase on average at an inflation-adjusted rate of 2.5% to 3% a year, about the same as per capita income. He thinks that long-run pattern is likely to continue, despite the recent choppiness.
Other experts make similarly modest predictions. William Wheaton, a professor of economics and real estate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, says he expects house prices to increase at a rate roughly one percentage point higher than inflation over the long term. Celia Chen, director of housing economics at Moody's Economy.com, a research firm, expects house prices to increase an average of around 4% a year over the next couple of decades.
Some experts say it's a bad idea to count on your home rising in value at all. People should think of their own homes mainly as places to live, not as investments, advises Kenneth Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate at the University of California, Berkeley. Sure, home mortgages provide tax benefits, and most homes appreciate in value over the long run, he says, but there is always risk.
For all of those forecasts, many Americans are undaunted. Consider three surveys, all from October.
In a poll of 2,000 adults, real-estate-data provider Zillow.com found that 61% believed the value of their home would either remain level or rise over the next six months. Another survey of more than 1,000 homeowners, sponsored by real-estate-services firm Realogy Corp., found that 91% thought that owning a home was the best long-term investment they could make. And an online survey of 5,000 people commissioned by Citigroup found that just 32% believed it was a good time to invest in stocks -- but 51% said it was a good time to buy a home.
"I just believe in real estate," says Jason Schram, a lawyer in Chicago who has bought two rental properties this year at what he considers fire-sale prices. "I've seen over and over people I know build wealth through rental real estate, and that's the path I intend taking, even though it's a bit bumpy at the moment."
Location, Location
So, as homeowners and buyers look ahead, what factors will determine whether their homes are really likely to rise in value, rather than just in their dreams? What are some of the bullish signs -- and some of the bearish ones?
In the long term, house prices are driven by fundamentals that are hard to predict: immigration, birth rates, the size and nature of households, and incomes. The trick is to figure out where job and income growth will be strongest and where immigrants and others will want to live.
William Frey, a demographer and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a think tank in Washington, says young people and immigrants are likely to flow to Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Tennessee, Virginia, Nevada, Arizona and some of the more affordable interior parts of California.
These areas generally have lower housing costs than the Pacific Coast or Northeast and job growth from modern industries and leisure businesses, he says. Areas with little immigration and low growth or falling populations are likely to include Michigan, Ohio, the Dakotas, Iowa, western Pennsylvania and upstate New York, Mr. Frey says.

Hit Parade
Newland Communities LLC, a San Diego-based planner and developer of neighborhoods, employs a full-time researcher to study long-term housing demand and ranks metro areas in terms of their growth prospects. Among those near the top of Newland's hit parade are Washington, D.C., Raleigh and Charlotte, N.C., Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Phoenix and Las Vegas, says Robert McLeod, the developer's chief executive.
All of them, Newland believes, will keep growing because they have well-diversified regional economies and other attractions, including mild climates. With the exception of Washington, they all have fairly affordable housing costs. Washington has a highly educated work force, high incomes, a stable source of government-related jobs and rapidly expanding technology firms, Newland says.
"The older industrial cities are going to suffer" from shrinking employment and forbidding weather, says Mr. Rosen of the University of California. Some Sun Belt cities, including Atlanta, also could languish if traffic jams and sprawl ruin their charms, he says.
Among metro areas that Mr. Rosen expects to do well in the long run are Albuquerque, N.M.; Boise, Idaho; Salt Lake City; Seattle; Portland, Ore.; Denver and Colorado Springs, Colo. He says those places generally offer "urban vitality" and "easy access to outdoor activities" combined with affordable housing and good job-growth prospects from modern industries, such as biotechnology.
Still, just looking at population trends isn't enough. Prices in the crowded coastal areas tend to be more volatile, rising and then falling much faster during booms and busts than do inland areas, Mr. Case notes. Shortages of land and building restrictions make it hard for builders to respond quickly when demand for housing rises in coveted neighborhoods near the coasts; further inland, it's usually much easier to find vacant homes or land, and so sudden movements in prices are less likely.
For instance, despite rapid growth, home prices in Texas cities have tended to climb only gradually. Those cities typically have plenty of room to sprawl, and Texas regulates land use less strictly than many other states. Supply swells to meet demand.
The Wonder Years
What's more, no one can assess the outlook for housing without considering the effects of 78 million aging baby boomers. For instance, some housing experts believe the boomers will be much less likely than their parents to settle for sun and golf in their retirement; they may prefer urban settings with lots of cultural life or to live nearer friends and families. That could mean higher demand -- and increased prices -- for housing in urban neighborhoods.
Most of this is just guesswork, though. "A lot of people have theories about the baby boomers," says Mr. Frey, the Brookings demographer, but boomers always have tended to confound expectations.
Dowell Myers, a professor of urban planning and demography at the University of Southern California, warns that the retirement of boomers over the next two decades is likely to depress house prices in many areas. As boomers relocate to retirement homes and cemeteries, there will be a lot more sellers than buyers in parts of the country, he says.
"It's going to really mess up the housing market," says Mr. Myers. He predicts that this "generational correction" will be larger and longer-lasting than the current slump.
To get a sense of the effects of aging boomers, Mr. Myers looks at the number of Americans 65 and over per 1,000 working-age people. He sees that number soaring to 318 in the year 2020 and 411 in 2030 from 238 in 2000.
Many people over 65 buy homes, of course, but as they get older they become more likely to sell than buy. People aged 75 to 79 are more than three times as likely to be sellers than buyers, Mr. Myers says.
In some areas, younger people will be happy to buy (and probably renovate) those boomer nests. The problem, Mr. Myers says, will be in places where lots of older people are selling and few young people are settling down. He says the effects will be strongest in the "coldest, most congested and most expensive states rather than the high-growth states of the South or West." Among the states where Mr. Myers sees downward pressure on prices within the next decade: Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New York and Massachusetts.
Of course, applying demographic trends to house-price forecasts can be hazardous. Economists N. Gregory Mankiw and David Weil predicted in a paper in 1989 that demographic trends would lead to a "substantial" fall in real, or inflation-adjusted, home prices over the next two decades "if the historical relation between housing demand and housing prices continues." They reasoned that baby boomers were coming to the end of their prime house-buying years and that the smaller baby-bust generation would bring lower demand for housing.
That warning proved, at a minimum, premature. Despite the recent drop, the average U.S. home price is up about 35% in real terms since the end of 1989, according to the Ofheo index. Messrs. Mankiw and Weil both declined to comment.
Few people who invest in housing have time to follow these academic debates. For nearly four decades, Rich Sommer and his wife, Carolyn, have been investing in rental properties in and near Stevens Point, Wis. Mr. Sommer describes real estate as a good way "to get rich slowly." He and his wife, both former schoolteachers, gradually have built their net worth from zero to around $2.5 million through their rental properties. They have dealt with countless plumbing emergencies, evicted deadbeats and even once had to clean up after a suicide in one of their properties.
Still, he hasn't been hit very hard by the real-estate crash, in part because the Midwest is much less vulnerable to booms and busts than coastal areas. When asked what he would do if someone handed him $1 million today, Mr. Sommer doesn't hesitate: He would put it into real estate.
—Mr. Hagerty is a staff reporter for The Wall Street Journal in Pittsburgh. bob.hagerty@wsj.com

PC Calendar of Events 11/30/08 to 12/06/08

The Egyptian Theatre Presents The Music Man
November 21, 2008 - January 3, 2009
Location: The Egyptian Theatre
Phone: 435-649-9371
www.egyptiantheatrecompany.org
This classic musical with its traveling con-man and the lonely piano teacher has been charming audiences for decades. Come, bring the whole family to this heartfelt and uplifting entertainment and spend the holidays with us at The Egyptian Theatre. Please call for show days and times.

Park City Film Series - Park City Filmmakers Showcase
December 3, 2008
Times: 7pm
Location: Jim Santy Auditorium, 1255 Park Ave
Phone: 435-615-8291
Admission: Free
www.parkcityfilmseries.com
Short works by local artists, film, photography, multi-media

Brown Bag Seminar on Credit Card Processing
December 4, 2008
Times: 11:30am to 1:00pm
Location: Best Western Landmark Inn
Phone: 435-658-9619
Do you accept credit cards and if so, do you know what you are paying? Advanced Merchant Group will host this lunch and will help you understand the world of credit card processing so you will be armed with the knowledge to help your business save thousands of dollars! Materials to bring: Your recent processing statement, pencil and calculator. Bring your own lunch and drinks will be provided. Please RSVP to Barbara at 435-658-9619 or Barbara by November 28, 2008.

KRCL Celebrates in Park City
December 4, 2008
Times: 4:00 - 7:00pm
Location: Phoenix Gallery, 508 Main Street, Park City
Phone: 801-647-2995
Listeners Community Radio of Utah, invites all friends of community radio to join us for a holiday Meet-&-Greet on December 4in Park City. The gathering celebrates KRCL's strong broadcast signal in Park City, Heber City, Oakley, Coalville, Summit Park, Jeremy Ranch, Echo, Kamas and surrounding areas. The celebration will be held from 4:00 to 7:00 pm at the Phoenix Gallery on historic Main Street in Park City, with appetizers enhancing the enjoyment of fantastic art.

Park City Free Winter Concert Series - Tim Wray & Fat Paw
December 4, 2008
Times: 8-10pm
Location: HarryO's, 427 Main St.
Phone: 801-661-1888
www.parkcityconcerts.org
Produced by The Park City Concerts Foundation and sponsored by The Canyons, the Thursday night series will bring a mix of the best bands in Utah and national touring acts to Park City's historic Main Street.

William Morris: Native Species Exhibition Reception
December 4, 2008
Times: 5 to 7pm
Location: Kimball Art Center
Phone: 435-649-8882
www.kimball-art.org
Mark your calendar for the upcoming exhibition, Native Species featuring the work of renowned glass artist William Morris. Join us for an opening reception on Thursday, December 4, from 5:00 - 7:00 p.m., at the Kimball, followed by a screening of the William Morris documentary, Creative Nature, with filmmaker John Andres at 7:30 p.m., at the Treasure Mountain Inn. The evening promises to awe through its exploration of some of the most extraordinary work in the studio glass movement. $5 tickets to the screening are available for purchase at the Kimball Art Center and Treasure Mountain Inn.

Julie Nester Gallery Artist Reception--Carol O'Malia
December 5, 2008
Times: 5:30 to 8pm
Location: 1280 Iron Horse Drive
Phone: 435-649-7855
www.julienestergallery.com
O'Malia's contemporary winter landscapes depict light and shadows reflected upon blue and white fields of snow. The show also includes interior landscapes which use the bed as a psychological landscape. The exhibit runs from November 28 through December 24.

Park City Film Series - Trouble the Water
December 5, 2008 - December 7, 2008
Times: Friday & Saturday at 7pm; Sunday at 6pm
Location: Jim Santy Auditorium, 1255 Park Ave
Phone: 435-615-8291
www.parkcityfilmseries.com
Winner of the Grand Jury Prize at the 2008 Sundance Film Festival, this astonishingly powerful documentary takes you inside Hurricane Katrina in a way never before seen on screen. Tia Lessin and Carl Deal tell the story of an aspiring musician and her husband, trapped in New Orleans by deadly floodwaters, who survive the storm and then seize a chance for a new beginning.

Celebrity Skifest
December 6, 2008 - December 7, 2008
Location: Deer Valley Resort
Phone: 800-424-3337
deervalley.com

Images of Nature Gallery Fundraiser for Recycle Utah
December 6, 2008
Times: 11am to 2pm
Phone: 888-238-0233
www.mangelsen.com
Enjoy holiday refreshments, special pricing, and prize drawings throughout the weekend. Recycle Utah staff will be on hand to help kids make a free holiday craft using household recycled materials. Become a new member, renew a membership, or make a donation to Recycle Utah and receive a complimentary gift from Images of Nature Gallery.

Ryan Bingham at The Eccles Center
December 6, 2008
Times: 7:30pm
Location: 1750 Kearns Blvd
Phone: 435-655-3114
www.ParkCityTickets.com
A bull-ridin,’ country rocker, this husky-voiced 28 year-old is a rising star, according to NPR’s WXPN. Bingham blends southern roots with bayou and south-of-the-border influences. Mandolins, harmonicas and slide guitars round out his gritty sound. In the word of Detroit’s Metro Times, “Bingham’s definitely a new troubadour, a desperado or modern ‘outlaw’ of sorts …a guitar man from a Texas border town strumming a form of new country that’s never too far from old-timey.”

Utah Winter Games Learn to Ski/Learn to Ride
Add to Itinerary
December 6, 2008
Location: The Canyons Resort
Phone: 435-649-5400
thecanyons.com
December 2008